Monday, December 26, 2016

Global and U.S. Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Here's a quick and not nearly comprehensive survey that seeks merely to show, for anybody in denial, that fossil fuels are and have been heavily subsidized. I link here from my main blog.

The IMF estimates global fossil fuel subsidies at $5.3 trillion per year, about 6.5% of global GDP. Biggest subsidizers are: China $1.8T, U.S. $0.6T, Russia, E.U., and India $0.3T each.

As explained here, the IMF's is an expansive economic assessment that includes the costs of economic externalities, something other treatments don't typically cover: "Just over half the figure is the money governments are forced to spend treating the victims of air pollution and the income lost because of ill health and premature deaths."

Around 6% of the global subsidy is the direct subsidizing of fuel costs for consumers, primarily in oil-producing countries. (see previous "explained here" link)

Ending all subsidies would decrease global carbon emissions by 20% and would prevent 1.6 million premature deaths per year. (see previous "explained here" link)

The International Energy Agency estimated global subsidies at "only" $493 billion per year, but it didn't include externalities.

The OECD has compiled an inventory of 800 policies in member countries that subsidize fossil fuels, amounting to $160-200B annually. Scroll down to the executive summary in this extensive report.

In 2009 the G20 countries agreed to a phase out of fossil fuel subsidies. Here's a joint report by the IEA, OPEC, OECD and World Bank.

Here's a report on production subsidies in the U.S. in 2013 and 2014; it's a companion to a larger report on G20 subsidies.

From the "G20 countries agreed" link above:
Energy producers were not enthused by the subsidy phase-out plan. The American Petroleum Institute, which represents the U.S. petroleum and natural gas industry, said Washington must clarify how the policy would affect the United States. "The Obama administration and Congress now face many difficult choices if they choose to comply with the G20 commitment to phase-out fossil fuel subsidies," the API said.
This year (2016) the G7 countries pledged to end fossil fuel subsidies by 2025.

The U.S. Treasury has identified 11 federal fossil fuel production tax provisions amounting to $4.7 billion annually.

But the U.S. subsidies are not just tax-based. The U.S. government has subsidized, promoted, assisted, and partially funded fossil fuel related projects and research for much of the industry's existence. Consider the U.S. government's crucial role in the development of hydraulic fracturing (a.k.a. "fracking") of shale gas, as described here:
The history of shale gas fracking in the United States was punctuated by the successive developments of massive hydraulic fracturing (MHF), microseismic imaging, horizontal drilling, and other key innovations that when combined made the once unreachable energy resource technically recoverable. Along each stage of the innovation pipeline – from basic research to applied R&D to cost-sharing on demonstration projects to tax policy support for deployment – public-private partnerships and federal investments helped push hydraulic fracturing in shale into full commercial competitiveness. Through a combination of federally funded geologic research beginning in the 1970s, public-private collaboration on demonstration project and R&D priorities, and tax policy support for unconventional technologies, the federal government played a key role in the development of shale gas in the United States.
This 2015 study found coal subsidies of $2.9 billion per year in the U.S. and $1.3 billion per year in Australia.

The "Energy Policy Act of 2005" signed by George W. Bush, and which I called back then a "massive corporate welfare program," provided for, among other things (bullet-point items quoted from Wikipedia):

  • increase coal as an energy source while also reducing air pollution, through authorizing $200 million annually for clean coal initiatives, repealing the current 160-acre (0.65 km2) cap on coal leases, allowing the advanced payment of royalties from coal mines and requiring an assessment of coal resources on federal lands that are not national parks
  • exempts oil and gas producers from certain requirements of the Safe Drinking Water Act
  • exempted fluids used in the natural gas extraction process of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) from protections under the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Safe Drinking Water Act, and CERCLA
  •  provides incentives to companies to drill for oil in the Gulf of Mexico

Tom Delay inserted $500 million in subsidies into the 2005 bill for research into deep-water oil and gas drilling. Also in the bill was "royalty relief for deep-water drilling projects." The industry contended government subsidies were necessary: "If you don't provide the relief, nothing will happen," said John Felmy, the American Petroleum Institute's chief economist. "The start-up costs are just too massive."

Speaking of "clean coal initiatives," the U.S. government is heavily involved in "Carbon Capture and Storage" research and development. One wonders why we need expensive "clean coal" (whose production will remain highly destructive) when we have abundant, cleaner, and far cheaper natural gas.

A Bloomberg editorial says "fuel subsidies are the world's dumbest policy."

An extensive report shows that U.S. fossil fuel subsidies increased under Barack Obama.

Sunday, May 29, 2016

Spencer on the "Petition Project"

An acquaintance directed me to this (originally WSJ commentary) piece by Dr. Roy Spencer as refutation of my consistently held characterization of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic (human caused) climate change as "overwhelming." The Spencer piece has a lot of problems. One that undermines his very integrity is his citation of the "Petition Project," which he describes thusly:
Of the various petitions on global warming circulated for signatures by scientists, the one by the Petition Project, a group of physicists and physical chemists based in La Jolla, Calif., has by far the most signatures—more than 31,000 (more than 9,000 with a Ph.D.). It was most recently published in 2009, and most signers were added or reaffirmed since 2007. The petition states that “there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of . . . carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate.”
This petition is a deeply troubled and conflicted operation that verges on outright fraud. It's an example of what you might call "push polling on steroids."

Obviously the petition doesn't and can't try to gauge scientific consensus or lack thereof. Unlike surveys that ask questions of verified respondents, the petition promotes a point of view. It comes with a cover letter from a famous climate change denier. It claims over 31,000 signatories, but has no way to verify who they are. Pranksters have submitted fake signatures with made up names. Most of the "more than 9,000" Ph.D.s that Spencer mentions are engineers, not scientists. From the project's own statistics, a minute fraction of signatories are climatologists or closely related specialists. A document included with the petition was deceptively designed to look like a reprint from the National Academy of Sciences, even though it wasn't. The NAS felt the need to publicly distance itself from the project, and to reaffirm its own assessment of scientific opinion.

Bottom line: If you're honestly trying to gauge scientific opinion, you don't include materials making the case against anthropogenic climate change. Respondents, particularly scientists, ought not need to be told by you what they should believe.

Here's a Wikipedia article on the project.

Spencer on Bray and von Storch

An acquaintance directed me to this (originally WSJ commentary) piece by Dr. Roy Spencer as refutation of my consistently held characterization of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic (human caused) climate change as "overwhelming." The Spencer piece has a lot of problems. For example, he tries to debunk the scientific consensus by highlighting scientific disagreement over things like computer models and cloud formation:
Rigorous international surveys conducted by German scientists Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch—most recently published in Environmental Science & Policy in 2010—have found that most climate scientists disagree with the consensus on key issues such as the reliability of climate data and computer models. They do not believe that climate processes such as cloud formation and precipitation are sufficiently understood to predict future climate change.
This is an odd argument. The "consensus" has nothing to do with the reliability of models. It is all about two questions: Is the earth warming? Is that warming mostly caused by humans? Scientists reach conclusions about those questions in a variety of ways.

Many climate scientists don't see much need for models. James Hansen says that understanding how the climate has operated in the past tells us what we can expect in the future. I'd guess most scientists would say that models, alleged warts and all, can be useful for specific purposes, but the case for climate change doesn't depend upon how "good" those models are judged to be.

The Bray and von Storch survey does ask the two questions, ignored by Spencer, against which consensus is gauged, and is briefly mentioned in a Wikipedia article entitled "Surveys of scientists on climate change." From the article:
In the section on climate change impacts, questions 20 and 21 were relevant to scientific opinion on climate change. Question 20, "How convinced are you that climate change, whether natural or anthropogenic, is occurring now?" Answers: 67.1% very much convinced (7), 26.7% to some large extent (5–6), 6.2% said to some small extent (2–4), none said not at all. Question 21, "How convinced are you that most of recent or near future climate change is, or will be, a result of anthropogenic causes?" Answers: 34.6% very much convinced (7), 48.9% being convinced to a large extent (5–6), 15.1% to a small extent (2–4), and 1.35% not convinced at all (1).
Let me rephrase that slightly. On the question of whether the earth is warming,  93.8% said they were convinced at least to "some large extent," 6.2% were convinced "to some small extent," and nobody said they were completely unconvinced.

On the question of whether the warming was caused by humans, 83.5% said they were convinced at least "to a large extent," 15.1% "to a small extent," and a mere 1.35% were not convinced at all.

A very strong result for consensus.

I personally think the Bray and von Storch survey has some problems, as do most efforts of its kind. It's darned hard to survey scientists about their beliefs. But Spencer cited it to make his case, even though we can see it surely works against him. And he completely ignored the part of the survey that bears directly on the consensus question he was ostensibly trying to address, and opted instead to delve inexplicably into scientific esoterica which is quite beside the point. This suggests either bad faith, a disturbing inability to reason, or perhaps just unfamiliarity with the survey.

With respect to the various survey attempts, the Wikipedia article says "they have generally concluded that the majority of scientists accept that human activity is contributing to global warming."

Monday, February 29, 2016

Milkweeds

Some milkweed photos from my tallgrass prairie restoration. Click on the image for a larger view. Not shown here but present on site: Spider Milkweed (Asclepias viridis), Common Milkweed (A. syriaca), Whorled Milkweed (A. verticillata), and Tall Green Milkweed (A. hirtella).

Purple Milkweed (Asclepias purpurascens)

Butterfly Milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa)

Green Milkweed (Asclepias viridiflora)

This page is linked to from my blog post entitled "On Diversity."

Copyright (C) 2016 James Michael Brennan, All Rights Reserved

Royal Catchfly

Photo from my tallgrass prairie restoration. Click on the image for a larger view.

Royal Catchfly (Silene regia)

This page is linked to from my blog post entitled "On Diversity."

Copyright (C) 2016 James Michael Brennan, All Rights Reserved

Evening Primrose

Evening primrose photos from my tallgrass prairie restoration. Click on the image for a larger view. Not shown here but present on site: Showy Evening Primrose (Oenothera speciosa).

Missouri Evening Primrose (Oenothera macrocarpa)

Common Evening Primrose (Oenothera biennis)

This page is linked to from my blog post entitled "On Diversity."

Copyright (C) 2016 James Michael Brennan, All Rights Reserved